State of the Unions by Economist Ulrik Bie
What to expect of the U.S., United Kingdom and euro area in 2019
The latest update of IMF’s World Economic Outlook this January was not pleasant reading. It was the second 0.2 percentage points downgrade of the forecast for 2019 in three months. This time to 3.5% – the lowest growth rate since the mini-EM meltdown in 2015/16.
Global growth could decline to 3.2% this year as several factors merge to forge strong headwinds: an ageing of the business cycle, declining effect of policy tools after a decade of overutilization and debt accumulation, as well as risks attributable to the very people, who during normal times would be problem solvers.
Sometimes the only thing to fear is fear itself. While the prudent strategy for businesses in the current environment is to stay calm and carry on with everyday affairs, it also makes sense to postpone hiring and investment plans until more clarity is available. Household confidence has declined across countries irrespective of the underlying economic strength and precautionary savings could increase in developed economies.
The weaker growth prospects also mean that equity markets will be challenged. There will be little help from economic growth, but central banks are now back to supporting markets. This is not a healthy trend. President Trump’s trade wars remain central to the adverse outlook; a quick resolution to the standoff with China could change the trajectory but is still not likely. US relations with the EU could cool further in coming months. President Trump’s Achilles heel is equity prices, and policies could well depend on how much equity markets decline.
To give us the grand overview, we have invited the Economic Editor at Berlingske Ulrik Bie to take us through the main issues and forecasts for 2019 in the US, United Kingdom and Euro area. Ulrik will cover topics such as:
- US Trade wars
- The US political and economic landscape
- Brexit and trade relations
- European growth conundrum
About the speaker
Ulrik Harald Bie is a seasoned economist with experience from both the public and private sector, having served as Chief Economist of Nykredit (Denmark) and at the Institute of International Finance (Washington, DC). Ulrik has covered US economic and political issues since 2003; first as Finance Attaché at the Royal Danish Embassy in Washington, DC, and later at Nykredit, the IIF, and as an independent economist. Ulrik has also covered the euro area and the UK extensively and has lately worked on broader economic, political, and geopolitical trends, bringing together a range of perspectives. Ulrik received both his Master of Science and Bachelor of Arts degrees in Economics from the University of Copenhagen. He is currently Economic Editor at Berlingske and can be followed at www.bieresearch.com and https://twitter.com/UlrikBie.
17:30 Welcome by CBS MBA Alumni Society
17:35 Talk by Ulrik Bie
19:00 Reception – refreshments and snacks
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